Modeling provincial Covid-19 epidemic data in Italy using an adjusted time-dependent SIRD model

The outbreak of the Covid-19 epidemics in early 2020 has caused an unprecedented effort of the scientific community to produce models that could monitor and predict the evolution of the epidemics in a reliable way, also to advice governments to take actions which could mitigate the burden of hospitals to […]

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EpideMSE – Epidemiological Modeling, Simulation and Decision Support of COVID-19

Intensice Care Bed Capacity

When the Covid19-Pandemic started in early 2020, Germany reacted with strict, acute nationwide measures that aimed at minimizing infection risk within the population. These included closing possible meeting locations such as schools, non-essential shops, playgrounds, restaurants and the like. Now that the numbers have declined, the government was and is faced with the dilemma of balancing citizens’ freedom rights against the risk of a new wave of infection. With smaller, but heterogeneously distributed outbreaks, local health authorities and politicians are now responsible for deciding on the degree of relaxation of protective measures in their administrative districts. There are currently numerous publications and pre-publications (cf. Flaxman, 2020) in which scientists analyze the current infection situation and attempt to predict the further course of the pandemic. Nevertheless, it cannot be expected that a district administrator or the head of the local health department will have the time and training to apply the study results, which were prepared for specific countries, regions or cities, to the situation in his or her district.

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