By Maeve Upton.
Mathematics Applications Consortium for Science and Industry (MACSI), Department of Mathematics & Statistics, University of Limerick
As Europe transitions toward a more sustainable energy future, ambitious renewable energy targets are reshaping how electricity is generated and integrated into national grids.
In 2022, the European Commission launched the REPowerEU plan to transform how Europe produces and consumes energy. This initiative set an ambitious target of 600 GW of newly installed solar PV capacity by 2030. Following this, the Renewable Energy Directive, passed in 2023, further increased the goal to at least 42.5% renewable energy in the EU’s total energy mix by 2030.
These European targets have significant implications for all member states, including Ireland, which has set its own ambitious goal of 80% renewable electricity by 2030, with 8 GW of solar capacity as described in the Climate Action Plan.
However, integrating renewables into the power grid presents significant challenges due to the high variability and rapid fluctuations of solar and wind energy. As a result, accurately forecasting power generation is critical for ensuring grid stability and maximizing renewable energy use.
To tackle these challenges, the GREEN-GRID project, funded by Research Ireland (formerly SFI), is developing advanced statistical and mathematical models to predict real-time solar and wind energy production.
One of the projects key objectives is to create high-resolution spatiotemporal maps of Irelands solar potential. Figure 1 highlights previous work by the Photovoltaic Geographical Information System, which provided long-term average photovoltaic power potential in Ireland. However, discrepancies between forecasted and actual solar power generation remain a persistent challenge, making it crucial to quantify uncertainties and enhance forecasting accuracy. Additionally, solar forecasting capabilities for Ireland have been limited, and our goal is to provide real-time, high-precision estimates to support grid management and energy planning. To achieve this, we are exploring a range of modelling approaches, from traditional statistical methods to advanced machine learning algorithms. These models are rigorously evaluated through cross-validation techniques and comparative assessments, to determine their forecasting accuracy under varying weather conditions.
By leveraging these modelling techniques and diverse data sources, the GREEN-GRID project aims to advance Ireland’s ability to predict solar energy production more effectively. This will not only support grid operators in managing variability but also provide actionable insights for policymakers, energy suppliers, and consumers.
Through this initiative, we move closer to a resilient, data-driven renewable energy future, where improved forecasting enables smarter energy planning, greater grid stability and accelerated decarbonization.