ECMI STUDENT competition: Modelling and prediction of pollen concentration

Foreword: Allergy to pollen is one of the most widespread diseases in today’s world. Even with the benefits of modern medicine, allergies still cause serious health problems and avoidance is an important aspect of treatment. Thus, prediction of pollen concentration is a very important task.

Data: The data set was obtained within the IPA Cross-Border Programme Croatia-Serbia “Real-time measurements and forecasting for successful prevention and management of seasonal allergies in Croatia-Serbia cross-border region(RealForAll)The set consists of over 11000 measurements taken at every 7.5 minutes. The measurements include source strength (proximity to the source), time stamp, pollen concentration at 1.5m above ground, pollen concentration at 6m above ground, mean temperature, mean relative humidity, global solar radiation, sum of precipitation and turbulent kinetic energy.

Task: The task is to derive a prediction model for pollen concentration using whatever approach is deemed more effective by the participants. This might include analytic, semi-analytic approaches, statistics, modelling and numerics

Deliverable:a written report of 12 pages at most is the expected result as well as pollen predictions. In case computer simulations are performed, they should be well documented with results included in the report and accompanied by the code. The code should be written in Matlab/Octave, C, Python or R.

Organization: Teamwork is allowed with max 4 members for team. Students of Master Degree and PhD level of ECMI member institutions are eligible as team members. The list of ECMi members is available at Teams will receive the data set upon registration. The team should nominate a leader who will get the data and present the results, but registration of all team members is mandatory. The registration should be made at

Deadlines: The registration is open from March 15 to April 15, 2020. The submissions are due to June 15, 2020. The winner will be announced until July 15, 2020.

Prize: The winning team will receive 1000 euro cash prize.

Criteria: The committee will judge the originality of approach, the quality of implementation, the quality of results and overall quality of the report.

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